So says Navigant Research, a respected market research firm that covers EVs extensively:
The report includes a detailed look at the geographic distribution of plug-in sales. Most of the action is in California, where PEVs already account for more than 3% of the state’s total light-duty vehicle market. State incentives, together with the state’s Zero Emission Vehicle program, are expected to push PEV penetrations in Cal to between 15% and 22% by 2024.
The other 10 states that participate in the ZEV program are expected to see similar growth. Navigant predicts that Hawaii, Washington, and Georgia could also see penetration rates above 7% in 2024.
The write-up from Charged EV magazine acknowledges that sales could grow significantly with more 200-mile range battery electric vehicles that sell for less than $40,000. My hope is that these market predictions will wildly underestimate actual sales, much as the initial projections of cell phone usage were badly off.
We’ll certainly need more EVs to meet our long-term climate goals, not to mention all the co-benefits that come with driving electric.